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Posted: Wednesday, 21 October 2009 10:28AM How To Fix The Mets Ed Coleman |
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How to fix the 2010 New York Mets. A gargantuan task to say the least. Not an easy cure-all, but you have to start somewhere. For starters, they could use another solid starting pitcher. And a power hitter. And a left-handed hitting catcher. As well as a reliable set-up reliever. Not to mention a reserve shortstop. That's all. This is a team that had the largest discrepancy in wins from 2008 to 2009 (19 fewer wins - from 89 to 70) than any team in baseball. So there's a lot to repair. Here's one man's opinion, for what it's worth.
PITCHING, PITCHING, AND MORE PITCHING Yes, we all know the adage that it's all about pitching, but in the Mets' case, let me put it this way. Which do you put more stock in - that Jose Reyes (just 147 AB in 2009) and Carlos Beltran (only 308 AB) can both bounce back and give you their normal offensive production in 2010 - or that either Mike Pelfrey, John Maine or Oliver Perez can be that solid # 2 starter behind ace Johan Santana in the Mets rotation? I'll take the former as opposed to the latter. Santana should be fine, but the Mets have to guard against the fact that it may not be smooth sailing from Day 1 with him, in addition to lessening the pressure or expectations on the other 3 - expectations I believe affected Pelfrey adversely this past season. So, where do they go? Well, John Lackey seems to be at the top of the free agent list this off-season, but a few things about Lackey before you jump. Since a dominating 2007 where he went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA and pitched 224 innings, Lackey has not approached that the last two years due to setbacks with injuries. He had 5 straight seasons of 33 starts (2003-07), just 24 in '08 and 27 in '09. He's also a Texas boy (Abilene) who apparently wouldn't mind being closer to his beloved Dallas Cowboys. Hey, he's still a horse, still a grinder - two characteristics the Mets definitely need a transfusion of - but you will probably overpay for Lackey in a down free agent year. The Mets could have had Randy Wolf last year - all he gave the Dodgers was 214 innings of 3.23 ERA pitching with a 1.10 WHIP. Not too shabby. Wolf is a high strikeout-low walk pitcher for a little guy (322 K's - just 129 walks the past two seasons) who has no problem with New York and has pitched well here, despite being a So-Cal native. Jason Marquis would love to come home. A gamer of the highest degree, Marquis had a spectacular first half (11-6 with a 3.65 ERA), but faltered down the stretch after the All-Star break (just 4-7 in his last 15 starts). Two other things with Marquis - he might be your best righty bat off the bench (a la Micah Owings), and it probably heightens the Mets' chances of being in the playoffs with him on the roster - Marquis' teams (Braves, Cardinals, Cubs and Rockies) always seem to be playing in October. Tim Hudson's name has been mentioned, but Atlanta is likely to keep him because he is reasonably affordable coming back from Tommy John surgery. It might free up Javier Vazquez, and the Mets should jump despite his rocky tenure with the cross-town Yankees. He's another gamer coming off a tremendous season. How about another Santana? Not Carlos, but the Angels' Ervin. If Lackey goes, the Angels may have a greater need for him, but if not, get him on a bounceback. Santana was bothered by both a sprained elbow ligament and triceps inflammation this season which curtailed his effectiveness, but he looks fine this post-season. And he had a stellar 2008. Santana went 16-7 last year, striking out 214 in 219 innings while walking just 47 (a 4 1/2:1 K to BB ratio). He does give up home runs - 22 per year the last 5 seasons - but that should be curtailed somewhat by spacious CitiField. And Jon Garland should not be summarily dismissed. Picked up by the Dodgers from Arizona for the stretch run, Garland does give up a lot of hits, but he's also averaged 13 wins and 205 innings over the last 8 seasons. I know manager Jerry Manuel would love Toronto ace Roy Halladay underneath his Christmas tree, but I don't see the Mets investing that large a percentage of their payroll in two pitchers (Johan & Halladay). These, and other trade options, are some alternatives. MAKE THE COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR GO AWAY The Mets made a crucial tactical blunder by not dealing Carlos Delgado off his superb finishing kick to the 2008 season. Thus they were stuck with the consequences when Delgado's hip finally gave out early last season. Don't make the same mistake with Little Luis, the likely Comeback Player of the Year. Sell high, buy low. Castillo batted .302 with 69 walks, 20 stolen bases and a .387 OBP. Castillo hit .353 at CitiField, which might dissuade some suitors, but he must be dealt. The real reason is his defense or, more precisely, his lack of range. Way too many ground balls bounced through the right side into the outfield this season, and it wore on the pitching staff. His contract is more manageable now (2 years, 12 million), so make the move. Judging by the playing time Ronnie Belliard is getting in the Dodgers' post-season, the O-Dog - Orlando Hudson - certainly appears to be available, although it would probably be around the same price or a little more. How does a grinder like Mark DeRosa sound at 2B? Other available names - the Indians' Jamey Carroll, Placido Polanco of the Tigers, both gritty types. But let Luis take his Comeback trophy to a new destination in 2010. FIND ME SOME POP (AND NOT SODA) Any way you slice it, 95 HR doesn't get the job done. And it wasn't the CitiField factor that everyone cites - the Mets actually hit more home runs at home (49) than they did on the road (46). First base or left field are the obvious holes for power, and how the Mets approach this situation is key. Manuel would prefer to build his 2010 edition with pitching, defense and speed being paramount. And there are indications that the Mets are proceeding with Daniel Murphy and a right-handed hitting complement as a 1B combination. If so, that means finding a slugger that can cover the spacious gaps in CitiField's outfield, not an easy get. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay don't exactly fit that bill, great statistics notwithstanding. I would first try this - investigate whether Adrian Gonzalez can be had from San Diego. Look, the Red Sox went after him at the trading deadline this year, and will go after him again, and they're wondering if they have enough players and prospects to appease the Padres, and theirs or just about any farm system is deeper than the Mets. But Gonzalez is well worth almost any price. A very good defender at 1B, Gonzalez has put up almost ridiculous numbers with very little protection in an anemic Padres lineup. Since 2006, he has increased his HR total from 24 to finally reaching 40 this season. Gonzalez has improved his walk total from 52 to 119 this year. His strikeouts dropped from 142 in 2008 to 109, and his OBP ballooned from .361 to .407. Acquiring Gonzalez would then free you up to pursue a Carl Crawford or Chone Figgins (101 walks - 42 SB) or a similiar type player that can roam the outfield easier and cover more ground than a slow-footed slugger. If Gonzalez is here, it relegates Murphy to being a lefty bat off the bench and part-time player, but it gives the Mets a deeper bench. If not Gonzalez and if not a platoon at 1B. you can look at Nick Johnson - a .426 OBP and New York experience already, but often injured and slow - or perhaps Adam Laroche - a great glove and consistent hitter (averaging 26 HR and 86 RBI the last 4 years) - but also slow and a notorious slow starter in April and May. Yes, Holliday has stated that he loves New York, and Scott Boras, Holliday's agent, has often demonstrated how much he loves New York money. He won't come cheaply or short-term. But the Mets are enamored with him and will make a run at him. Manuel has often joked that if he can't have a Halladay for Christmas he'll take a Holliday. No, he doesn't fit the defense and speed profile, but he definitely provides power, also hits for a high average, can be a difference-maker in the lineup and tore the cover off the ball after returning to the National League in St. Louis from Oakland. Bobby Abreu has already turned down 2 years at $16 million from his current club, the Angels, the Rockies have said that they have little desire to trade Brad Hawpe, and Jermaine Dye could be a possibility. The Mets need power for a myriad of reasons - where it comes from is an open equation at the moment. HAS ANYONE SEEN PIAZZA (OR MAYBE CARTER) Omir Santos proved to be a very pleasant surprise in 2009, with 7 HR (including a memorable one off Jonathan Papelbon at Fenway Park) and 40 RBI. He hit .260 but his OBP was only .296. He is not a # 1 catcher. The future looks very bright for young Josh Thole, who came up and in 53 AB hit .321. There's some power there too, which bodes well. But Thole is not quite ready to be a major league backup - he could use some more seasoning. So where do the Mets go. The options seem limited unless you're searching for aging backstops. Rod Barajas is 34 - so is Ramon Hernandez. Benjy Molina is 35. I like Barajas who batted just .226 but was productive with 19 HR and 71 RBI. Barajas also had a career high 460 plate appearances in 2009, but among those who had at least 400 PA, Barajas had the worst OBP in all of baseball. So the Mets may have to be creative in this category as well. With Santos as backup, you would prefer a lefty hitting catcher, but that's in a perfect world, something the Mets haven't experienced in quite awhile. GET THE BALL TO FRANKIE Relievers. Set-up men. Up one year, down the next. Pick 'em out of a hat maybe. The Mets need to build a better bridge to their closer Frankie Rodriguez than what they presented this season. You know Pedro Feliciano and his 80+ appearances will be back, as will the hard-throwing and potentially dominant Bobby Parnell. Can Sean Green cut back on his 9 hit batters and 8 wild pitches and be more consistent with his revamped delivery? Can Nelson Figueroa be the long man? Where does Brian Stokes fit, if at all? And J.J. Putz is interesting. The Mets will decline his $8.6 million option for 2010 and pay the $1 million buyout. Putz liked New York, but enough to come back? Will someone be inclined to trust him as a closer, which is what he would prefer? The bullpen was the top priority for the Mets last off-season - there is more time to sort it out and more pressing issues to sort out as well this time around. A couple of other issues. The Mets would love to re-sign Alex Cora to backup a healthy Jose Reyes, but Cora may be in demand elsewhere. His professionalism and leadership abilities should not be minimized. The only other utility infielder the Mets used this season who could handle the reserve shortstop role is Wilson Valdez, but Valdez probably doesn't hit enough to cut it. And nothing against Howard Johnson, who I thought did an excellent job this year, but I would have liked to see Rudy Jaramillo get a shot at working with Met hitters, but it seems that ship has sailed. Jaramillo, the long-time Rangers hitting instructor, recently turned down a 1-year offer from Texas, and now appears set to join the Cubs in Chicago. Jaramillo's son lives in New York, and for some time Rudy has sought to join him here, but he's probably cost-prohibitive for the Mets anyway. We'll see how it all begins to shake out fairly soon. The Mets have to be careful to avoid the "rob Peter to pay Paul" syndrome, shoring up one area but leaving a gaping hole in another to fix. And there certainly are enough holes to go around right now. C U soon Eddie C. |
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